Best Picture is an odd assortment of political machinations disguised as the "best motion picture of the year." Why are these movies nominated?
The Pianist: Let's see, a film about the Holocaust, with the added bonus of being directed by one of Hollywood's favorite sons in exile. Does it matter that said son is accused of pedophilia? Nah -- it's a movie about the Holocaust!
Chicago: It would have been surprising if it had not been nominated. It's a musical with some of Hollywood's favorite women in it, and it's distributed by Miramax. Suddenly, what was a wide-open nomination race has turned into a one horse race.
Gangs of New York: Scorsese. Miramax. Duh. Question is, which movie do the Weinsteins like more, Gangs or Chicago?
The Hours: Just as American Beauty reminded you every 30 seconds that Colonel Fitts is GAY and IN THE CLOSET, The Hours has to make sure you know that it's an Oscar-worthy movie, just as sure as Colonel Fitts is a CLOSETED HOMOSEXUAL. Yes, Nicole Kidman is A SHOO-IN FOR BEST ACTRESS, as the sun rises and Colonel Fitts is GAY -- AND WON'T ADMIT IT! I mean, every Oscar cliche is in there -- death by scourge of humanity (AIDS this time, not cancer), overcoming horrible disfigurement (Kidman's prosthetic nose), and the gay thing (just as Colonel Fitts himself was into the gay thing but could not accept it). There's even some Judaism tossed in there somewhere. This puppy panders to the Oscar folks just as much as American Beauty did, which had to remind you about Colonel Fitts' issues that you should know about by now.
Two Towers: Because every geek in Hollywood would have quit and left the studios without any CGI-driven blockbusters this summer had they not given them the usual consolation prize. And Two Towers didn't get a nod for cinematography, which just baffles me. Maybe there is a limit to the amount of New Zealand Tourism Infomercial the average person can absorb.
Chicago will win -- it's been a generation since a musical has won, and unlike Grease (I know, it wasn't nominated) and Moulin Rouge, a man could sit through without feeling his testosterone levels fall like Enron's stock. If not, the Miramax folks will pull the upset (by beating a movie they distributed) with Gangs of New York, but I have a feeling that The Hours is the wild card since it could pull voters from either Gangs or Chicago -- it's just a question of which it'll pull more votes from.
As for acting, it's Nicholson and Kidman, though Jack will win for NOT playing himself, a real change. Supporting actor and actress is where the horse races are. Assuming Queen Latifeh and Catherine Zeta-Jones cancel out, we have Bates, Streep, and Julianne Moore. Bates has an Oscar; Streep has one for every bathroom in her house. So, Moore should win out, maybe. Oscar loves Ms. Streep (maybe a little too much). Supporting actor is three Oscar winners (Harris, Newman, Walken), John C. Reilly (from Chicago) and Chris Cooper (from Adaptation -- he was, that's right -- he was Colonel Fitts!). Assuming it's not Newman or Walken, we're left with the Pollack sympathy vote for Harris, the Chicago momentum with Reilly, and Cooper's dark horse chance with a movie that is this the one "weird" movie Oscar gives sympathy to every year (c.f. Being John Malkovich, Ed Wood, Gods and Monsters....) I'd like to see Cooper win, but it's probably between The Hours and Chicago. Did you know that Colonel Fitts is a raging homosexual in denial?
